February 2020

1st February

A report in The Daily Telegraph, an avid supporter of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, advised, in relation to COVID-19, that Britain must be prepared for the worst.

 

3rd February

WHO released the international community’s Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan intended to help protect states with weaker health systems.

Speaking at the Royal Naval College at Greenwich, in his first speech referring to COVID-19, Boris Johnson said: “When [trade] barriers are going up, and when there is a risk that new diseases such as coronavirus will trigger a panic and a desire for market segregation that go beyond what is medically rational, to the point of doing real and unnecessary economic damage, then at that moment humanity needs some government, somewhere, that is willing at least to make the case powerfully for freedom of exchange.”

 

7th February

The American President, Donald Trump told a journalist, Bob Woodward, in a phone call that coronavirus was “more deadly than even your strenuous flus”. On 27th February he told the public, “It’s going to disappear. One day – it’s like a miracle – it will disappear.” The president told Mr Woodward in March, “I wanted to always play it down. I still like playing it down, because I don’t want to create a panic.” This information, however, did not appear anywhere until the publication in September of book by Mr Woodward. Its title: Rage.

 

10th February

SAGE advised: “It is a realistic probability that there is already sustained transmission in the UK, or that it will become established in the coming weeks.”

• SAGE published a document stating: “Asymptomatic transmission cannot be ruled out and transmission from mildly symptomatic individuals is likely.” This followed an initial study for Public Health England in January that said that available data were “not adequate to provide evidence for major asymptomatic/subclinical transmission”. On 21st September Professor Jurgen Haas, head of infection medicine at the University of Edinburgh, told The Independent: “We knew very early on from reports from China that a fair number of transmissions – it was speculated at some point up to 50 per cent – were from asymptomatic or presymptomatic cases.” On 5th July, the Health Secretary said that asymptomatic transmission was not known at the time – mid March – when elderly patients were being sent from hospitals into care homes without being tested. The testing of all patients being discharged was not introduced until 16th April, by which time, according to NHS England, some 25,000 had been discharged from hospitals into care homes. Mr Hancock told the BBC’s Andrew Marr (on 5th July): “At that point it was not known about the asymptomatic transmission of this disease, because no other coronavirus transmits asymptomatically, is my understanding.” On 8th July, the Prime Minister told the House of Commons (in answer to a question from the Leader of the Opposition): “The one thing that nobody knew early on during this pandemic was that the virus was being passed asymptomatically in the way that it is.” [Appendix 3]

 

11th February

WHO announced an official name for the disease: Coronavirus disease 2019, abbreviated to COVID-19 – CO for corona, VI for virus and D for disease. Previously it had been referred to as “2019 novel coronavirus” or “2019-nCoV”.

The actual virus is called SARS-CoV-2, a betacoronavirus, similar to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV – all three had their origins in bats. Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are common in people and many different species of animals, causing diarrhoea in, for example, camels, calves, foals, dogs, cats, turkeys, sheep and pigs, as well as respiratory disease in a number of species.

 

11th-12th February

WHO convened a Research and Innovation Forum on COVID-19 attended by more than 400 experts and funders from around the world, which included presentations by George Gao, director-general of the China CDC (Centre for Disease Control and Prevention), and Zunyou Wu, China CDC’s chief epidemiologist.

 

13th February

The Lancet published a document headed COVID-19: what is next for public health? by David L. Heymann and Nahoko Shindo, on behalf of the WHO Scientific and Technical Advisory Group for Infectious Hazards. This stated (among other things):

• “Presently COVID-19 seems to spread from person to person by the same mechanism as other common cold or influenza viruses – i.e. face to face contact with a sneeze or cough, or from contact with secretions of people who are infected. The role of faecal-oral transmission is yet to be determined in COVID-19 but was found to occur during the SARS outbreak.”

• “A plausible scenario based on the available evidence now is that the newly identified COVID-19 is causing, like seasonal influenza, mild and self-limiting disease in most people who are infected, with severe disease more likely among older people or those with co-morbidities, such as diabetes, pulmonary disease, and other chronic conditions. Health workers and carers are at high risk of infection, and health-care-associated amplification of transmission is of concern as is always the case for emerging infections. People in long-term care facilities are also at risk of severe health consequences if they become infected.”

• “…if widespread community transmission is established, there should then be consideration of a transition to include mitigation activities … Examples of mitigation activities include cancelling public gatherings, school closures, remote working, home isolation, observation of the health of symptomatic individuals supported by telephone or online health consultation, and provision of essential life support such as oxygen supplies, mechanical ventilators and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) equipment.”

 

16th-24th February

The WHO-China joint mission, which included experts from Canada, Germany, Japan, Nigeria, Republic of Korea, Russia, Singapore and the US (CDC, NIH) spent time in Beijing and also travelled to Wuhan and two other cities. They spoke with health officials, scientists and health workers in health facilities (maintaining physical distancing). The report of the joint mission can be found at https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf.

 

21st February

Italy recorded its first case of COVID-19 – in a town near Milan – which heralded the start of the first major outbreak in Europe. But there were reports published later that the virus had been in the country for considerably longer [see Appendix 6].

 

25th February

In some guidance for care homes, Public Health England stated: “It remains very unlikely that people receiving care in a care home or the community will become infected.” This guidance was withdrawn on 13th March and a revised document urged care home providers to review their visiting policy by asking no one to visit who had suspected COVID-19 or was generally unwell.

 

<< UP TO JANUARY 2020  |  MARCH >>